The Role of Foreign Assistance in Conflict Prevention

The Rationale for Change and a Vision for the Future
The human species demands, at minimum, a certain quality of life. Human rights should be protected, pluralism advocated, oppression avoided, and children given a chance to live life to the fullest. To the extent that many countries cannot yet do this, the international community should reach out in friendship to help. The international community has two roles in promoting this quality of life:
Putting out fires when they are just starting.

Building capacity to help others deal with problems in non-violent ways.
The international community needs attitudes, insights, institutions, and resources to implement a farsighted, proactive approach of assistance, cooperation, and education for countries in trouble. Many will welcome such an approach, even if ambivalently. For the small number of countries that are intransigent toward outsiders, mired in hatred, and controlled by tyrants, the international community should continually seek to draw them into the community of nations, while containing and deterring as necessary with forceful means.

Foresight is necessary to prevent conflict. The international community should take the initiative to assist countries in acquiring the necessary attitudes, concepts, skills, and institutions for resolving internal and external conflict. It should be proactive in helping them build the political and economic institutions of democracy.
In offering such help, the international community will need to engage moderate, constructive, and pragmatic leaders who are committed to humane and democratic values. While such leaders exist all over the world, their situation is often precarious. The international community can assist these leaders by providing a support network, which will, over the long run, help build institutions capable of meeting basic human needs and coping with conflicts that arise in the course of human interactions. It is important to realize that the world will never be conflict-free. Ways must be found to deal with conflict, short of mass violence.

Fulfilling the promise of democracy requires informed, proactive, and sustained efforts to prevent deadly conflict through just solutions and improved living conditions. There is a positive correlation between open market economies and democratic transitions. It is difficult to conceive of a long-term, flourishing market economy in the twenty-first century in the absence of a democratic political system because participation in the world economy requires openness in the flow of information, ideas, capital, technology, and people.

Civil society builds democracy by allowing the evolution of democratic values through non-violent conflict. Groups compete with each other and with the state for the power to carry out their specific agendas. Within the context of institutionalized competition, tolerance and acceptance of opposition develop. Civil society provides the opportunity for coalitions of individuals to undertake innovative activities, e.g., in the service of equal opportunity or protection of human rights.

Inter-American Summit on conflict resolution education

Tri-C’s Global Issues Resource Center and The Organization of American States will host a four-day Inter-American Summit on Conflict Resolution Education in Cleveland, Ohio, USA, March 14-15, 2007.
This event will bring together government representatives from among the 50 states and 34 countries of the Americas and their non-governmental organization partners who have legislation or policies in place to deliver conflict resolution education at the K-12 level and in colleges of teacher education.
This first-ever Summit offers a dynamic opportunity to develop a hemispheric infrastructure throughout the Americas to advance the work in the fields of conflict resolution education and peace education.
The Summit will bring together policymakers and educators representing regions across the United States and select member countries of the OAS representing North, Central, South America and the Caribbean. These national and international educators will exchange program best practices, evaluation methodology, creation of policy implementation structures, and consideration of obstacles to success.

Summit workshops, panels and round table discussions will be led by distinguished teams of policymakers and educators from among the 34 countries of the Americas, Europe, and the 50 states. These international experts bring the most current updates on innovative models that advance conflict resolution education. They will brief attendees on their state-wide and/or national CRE policies and best practices in building the structures needed for K-12 and higher education policy success. This global perspective will inspire new collaborations among nations, states and individuals to further the educational mission.

Natural Resources in Conflict

Wars need money. Natural resources such as timber, diamonds and minerals play an increasingly prominent role in providing this money, which is often used to fund armies and militias who murder, rape and commit other human rights abuses against civilians.
Global Witness' Natural Resources in Conflict team works to break the links between natural resources and conflict by influencing international, regional and national policies after carrying out in-depth investigations. Our work consists of:
Campaigning to prevent future conflicts, and curbing current ones, by denying combatants any income from the trade in natural resources. Global Witness' past successes in this field include closing off the lucrative timber trade of both Charles Taylor's despotic regime in Liberia and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, and the conflict diamonds campaign, which gave rise to the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme to prevent the trade in conflict diamonds, all of which have hastened the end of some of the world's most brutal wars. Currently, Global Witness is researching the trade in diamonds and cocoa in Cote d'Ivoire.
Working in post-conflict countries such as Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to ensure that crucial investment in the natural resource sector is equitable, sustainable, transparent and non-corrupt, and brings long-term benefit to the state and the population, thereby helping to prevent the seeds of future conflict.
Reforming international policy, especially pushing for the international community, at UN level, to adopt a definition of conflict resources which could be used to trigger action to prevent natural resources from fuelling conflict, and which could form the basis of revised national laws allowing people who trade in conflict resources to be prosecuted.

Water and Conflict

The only known example of an actual inter-state conflict over water took place between 2500 and 2350 BC between the Sumerian states of Lagash and Umma. Yet, despite the lack of evidence of international wars being fought over water alone, water has been the source of various conflicts throughout history. When water scarcity causes political tensions to arise, this is referred to as water stress. Water stress has led most often to conflicts at local and regional levels.
Water stress can also exacerbate conflicts and political tensions which are not directly caused by water. Gradual reductions over time in the quality and/or quantity of fresh water can add to the instability of a region by depleting the health of a population, obstructing economic development, and exacerbating larger conflicts.
Conflicts and tensions over water are most likely to arise within national borders, in the downstream areas of distressed river basins. Areas such as the lower regions of China's Yellow River or the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, for example, have already been experiencing water stress for several years. Additionally, certain arid countries which rely heavily on water for irrigation, such as China, India, Iran, and Pakistan, are particularly at risk of water-related conflicts. Political tensions, civil protest, and violence may also occur in reaction to water privatization. The Bolivian Water Wars of 2000 are a case in point.

Water Resources

Water resources are sources of water that are useful or potentially useful to humans. Uses of water include agricultural, industrial, household, recreational and environmental activities. Virtually all of these human uses require fresh water. 97.5% of water on the Earth is salt water, leaving only 2.5% as fresh water of which over two thirds is frozen in glaciers and polar ice caps. The remaining unfrozen freshwater is mainly found as groundwater, with only a small fraction present above ground or in the air. Fresh water is a renewable resource, yet the world's supply of clean, fresh water is steadily decreasing. Water demand already exceeds supply in many parts of the world, and as world population continues to rise at an unprecedented rate, many more areas are expected to experience this imbalance in the near future.The framework for allocating water resources to water users (where such a framework exists) is known as water rights.

Currency Market Conflict

The short-term and long-term patterns on display in the EUR/USD epitomize the conflict in the currency market. The short-term bull flag portends further upside, while the long-term head-and-shoulders top suggests downside. The conclusion of one, or both, of these patterns will likely dictate the next cyclical move in the EUR/USD and, indeed, the direction of the U.S. dollar in general.The EUR/USD is the most actively traded and closely watched pair in the currency market. Consequently, the EUR/USD is an excellent proxy for the U.S. dollar in general.The EUR/USD is in the midst of a head-and-shoulders top, which began forming in 2003. A head-and-shoulders top is a bearish reversal pattern. The head of the pattern marks the EUR/USD's all-time high near 1.3600, while the two shoulders fall into place at 1.2950. The right shoulder marks the EUR/USD's short-term high.

While the head-and-shoulders pattern has been forming, the fundamental backdrop of the EUR/USD has been going through dramatic changes. Foremost of these changes has been the widening interest rate differential, in favor of the U.S. dollar. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has taken short-term interest rates in the United States to 5.25 percent, which is 250 basis points better than the equivalent European Central Bank (ECB) rate of 2.75 percent. The FOMC has been far more aggressive in raising rates than the ECB over the past three years.But with the FOMC recently signaling a pause in rate hikes, and the ECB turning more hawkish, the interest rate differential between the euro and dollar may start to narrow, which is negative for the greenback.The short-term view of the EUR/USD, in contrast to the long-term view, supports a bullish outlook for the euro and bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar. In other words, the EUR/USD's short-term pattern points higher. The pair is consolidating within a bull flag, which is a continuation pattern. These patterns typically break in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this case is upward.
Note that the short-term high of the bull flag of 1.2950 is the right shoulder on the longer-term chart.The confluence of patterns over different timeframes sets up two 'if-then' scenarios for trading the EUR/USD. If the EUR/USD breaks its short-term bull flag, and then violates the head-and-shoulders with an advance past 1.2950, then the pair most likely goes on to retest its all-time high. Alternatively, if the EUR/USD breaks down from its bull flag, then it will probably trend towards the neckline of the head-and-shoulders at 1.1700. Either outcome represents a big move in the pair, which makes both of the patterns worth monitoring for the remainder of the summer.The fundamental impetus for a break of either pattern will most likely come in the form of interest rates. The ECB might start hiking rates more aggressively, which is reason for the EUR/USD to violate its head-and-shoulders and then trend higher. Or the FOMC might continue hiking rates more than the market is currently expecting, which is supportive of the head-and-shoulders.Whatever the outcome, a big move is forthcoming. Follow these two patterns in the EUR/USD to discern the direction of the next big trend in the currency market.

US AID conflict management

A peaceful, stable world is a key foreign policy priority for the United States. Yet violent conflict and instability are widespread in the developing world, affecting almost 60 percent of the countries in which USAID operates.
Many of the most important causes of violence, extremism and instability – such as stagnant or deteriorating economies, weak or illegitimate political institutions, or competition over natural resources – are the central concerns of aid. Development assistance must take this into account. Therefore, the Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation (DCHA/CMM) was created to change the way aid is planned and implemented.

Cost-Effective Strategizing:Rather than develop and sponsor new, stand-alone activities, DCHA/CMM helps USAID Missions and partners do more to address conflict with resources that are already available.
DCHA/CMM also collaborates extensively with other U.S. Government agencies such as the State Department and the Department of Defense. These new partnerships have formed the basis of building government capability in the Global War on Terror.

Cross-Cutting CapabilitiesDCHA/CMM’s operational reach is global and cross-cutting, extending to all USAID missions, geographical bureaus, and sectors. A key part of DCHA/CMM's mandate is to integrate or ‘mainstream’ best practices of conflict management into more traditional development sectors such as democracy and governance, economic growth, natural resource management, security sector reform, social development, and peace building.

Innovative Thinking and DesignDCHA/CMM seeks to put innovate ideas and greater creativity into USAID’s work so that the agency may better understand and respond to conflict. The office is supporting USAID missions by developing a series of toolkits, to help clarify the relationship between areas of development work such as youth programming and livelihoods development, and to recommend policies and project designs to address these issues.